JMF Capstone Wealth Management‘Cycle Factor’ Can Predict Returns – JMF Capstone Wealth Management https://www.jmfcapstone.com An Alabama registered investment advisor Fri, 21 Nov 2025 19:30:19 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.1.22 ‘Cycle Factor’ Can Predict Returns https://www.jmfcapstone.com/2015/11/02/cycle-factor-can-predict-returns/ https://www.jmfcapstone.com/2015/11/02/cycle-factor-can-predict-returns/#respond Mon, 02 Nov 2015 09:00:17 +0000 http://evolvemypractice.com/?p=2309 Anna Cieslak and Pavol Povala—authors of the paper “Expected Returns in Treasury Bonds,” which was published in the September 2015 issue of The Review of Financial Studies—examined the time variation in the risk premium that investors require for holding Treasury bonds. While most of the authors’ analysis relies on data starting in 1971 (when data...

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]]> Anna Cieslak and Pavol Povala—authors of the paper “Expected Returns in Treasury Bonds,” which was published in the September 2015 issue of The Review of Financial Studies—examined the time variation in the risk premium that investors require for holding Treasury bonds.

While most of the authors’ analysis relies on data starting in 1971 (when data for bond maturities 10 years and longer became available), they also reproduced their main conclusions over the longer sample period from 1952 through 2011 (using maturities of one through five years).

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